Democrats look like on observe to widen their majority within the Virginia Senate — a key chamber they’re defending this yr in a state the place abortion entry is on the road.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrat Aaron Rouse, a former Nationwide Soccer League participant and former Virginia Seaside Metropolis Council member, held a slender lead over his Republican opponent Kevin Adams in a particular election to fill a emptiness within the Virginia Senate’s Seventh District. Although Rouse has already declared victory, there are some absentee ballots but to be counted that would erase his lower than 350-vote lead. If Rouse prevails, Democrats would have a 22-18 edge within the chamber, which commenced its annual session on Wednesday.

The race could resolve whether or not state Republicans can take up further restrictions on abortion this yr. Although Democrats make up the vast majority of the Senate, their margin would solely be 21-19 within the chamber if Adams wins. Adams has stated that he helps a 15-week abortion ban proposed by Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. And Democratic state Sen. Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond) is overtly anti-abortion and has stated that he would hold an “open thoughts” in relation to additional restrictions on abortion. Which means the chamber may doubtlessly be tied on the problem, and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, additionally an anti-abortion politician, would solid the tiebreaking vote.

Virginia is one in every of many states contemplating additional restrictions on abortion this yr. Payments that might ban abortions after fetal cardiac exercise is detected in Nebraska, that might stop native governments from funding staff looking for an abortion by means of their well being plans or reimbursement for out-of-state journey in Tennessee, and that might ban abortion earlier than 12 weeks of being pregnant in North Carolina are amongst these on the desk. The Guttmacher Institute, a pro-abortion rights suppose tank, discovered that 24 states had been more likely to ban abortion or had already achieved so heading into 2023.

That’s made abortion a key problem for Democrats in state legislative races, together with for Rouse. He ran a number of TV adverts specializing in the problem and acquired greater than $100,000 from Deliberate Parenthood Advocates of Virginia this cycle.

“Once I was within the NFL, my job was to be the final line of protection. Proper now, that’s what we’d like in Richmond,” he says in one December advert. “Ladies’s rights are on the road, however I’ll by no means again down.”

Forward of Rouse’s seeming win, the risk to abortion entry within the state was very actual. Presently, Virginia permits abortions as much as about 26 weeks of being pregnant and, after that, solely in circumstances the place three medical doctors attest that the pregnant particular person’s life is in danger. Youngkin’s proposal for a 15-week ban contains exceptions for rape, incest, and to avoid wasting the pregnant particular person’s life. Democrats have argued that the governor’s proposal may end in jail time for ladies and medical doctors, however Youngkin’s workplace has dismissed that framing as “political posturing” and stated that he is not going to imprison ladies.

Youngkin has additionally proposed barring state Medicaid from overlaying abortions when a fetus has an “incapacitating” bodily or psychological deformity, and stopping state funds from getting used to assist abortion providers.

These measures may go within the Republican-controlled state Home. But when Rouse does win, that might seemingly foreclose the opportunity of a tie within the state Senate and doom Youngkin’s proposal for now.

What’s subsequent for abortion rights in Virginia

Rouse’s obvious victory would keep the established order on abortion rights in Virginia, however solely quickly.

Democrats might be down a vote within the state Senate if Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond) steps down, reopening the opportunity of a tie. She’s extensively favored to win a particular election to fill a vacant federal congressional seat in February, however she instructed the Virginia Mercury that she’s assured that any votes on abortion laws will conclude earlier than she’d should resign and that the Democratic caucus will maintain sturdy in opposition to additional abortion restrictions. It’s not clear whether or not there could be time to carry a particular election to fill that seat, on condition that it must occur at the least 55 days earlier than the June 20 main.

Then, in November, all 140 state legislative seats are up for grabs, and if Republicans can defend their majority within the state Home and web even only one seat within the state Senate, Youngkin’s proposal, or much more excessive abortion restrictions, akin to a proposed ban after 12 weeks of being pregnant, might be again on the desk. Youngkin has beforehand stated that he would “gleefully” signal “any invoice [to protect life] that involves my desk” — not simply one in every of his personal devising.

On the similar time, abortion rights teams within the state are attempting to additional defend abortion rights. REPRO Rising Virginia, an abortion rights group, is pushing for a state constitutional modification that might set up a proper to reproductive freedom and to make being pregnant choices with out discrimination, in addition to defend abortion suppliers and their sufferers from being criminalized.

Although different states have efficiently handed related amendments enshrining abortion rights of their state constitutions during the last yr, the modification most likely gained’t occur in Virginia anytime quickly, particularly as long as Republicans management the state Home. Any modification must go the legislature two years in a row with an intervening state Home election earlier than going to the voters.

Virginia is a prime precedence for Democrats in 2023

If Rouse wins, that might bode nicely for Democrats who wish to take again the Virginia Home of Delegates and defend their state Senate majority this fall.

They solely want three extra seats to win the Home, and in the event that they achieve widening their majority within the state Senate with a win within the Seventh District, they’d have a cushion heading into November, when a brand new electoral map drawn by a court-appointed particular grasp will shake up the dynamics for Democratic incumbents. The maps are thought to barely benefit Democrats, however some Democratic lawmakers have argued that the brand new map ought to have delivered a much bigger edge to their get together and unfairly pits incumbents in opposition to one another.

“Virginia is a big precedence,” stated Jessica Submit, president of the Democratic Legislative Marketing campaign Committee, the fundraising arm of the Democratic Social gathering devoted to state legislative races. “We have to do a number of work, particularly with Democratic incumbents, to introduce them to their new constituents and [ensure] they’ve an excellent report to run on.”

Democrats anticipate that Youngkin will spend considerably in state legislative races forward of a rumored 2024 presidential bid, which he has not but dominated out. A giant win this yr may assist to place him as a determine akin to Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis or Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who’re each seen as having a future in nationwide politics partly due to their capacity to carry onto and deepen majorities of their state legislatures.

“We predict that Youngkin, as a result of he’s each personally rich and he has an excellent capacity to lift cash nationally, goes to attempt to use this as a proving floor,” Submit stated. “We’re hoping that we are able to discover the nationwide curiosity in Virginia that we’ve been capable of finding in prior cycles and humble Youngkin and handle a few of his ambitions within the state.”