The Karnataka election dates are anticipated any day now, however the season of floor-crossing has clearly begun.

Already, there are press conferences by events welcoming leaders from different events who’ve out of the blue skilled a change of coronary heart.

Three classes of floor-crossing are noticeable at this stage.

First, legislators who sense they may very well be denied a ticket – or the prospect to contest – might nicely bounce ship. Second, when politicians see the pattern not going of their favour throughout the social gathering, both on account of factional rivalry or as the results of a rift with the central or state management, a fast exit is seen as one of the best ways out. Third, when leaders gauge a visual temper in opposition to their social gathering, both of their area or within the state, they calculate the benefits of switching sides.

One other issue driving defections emerges when events announce candidates and disgruntled ticket seekers attempt their luck with another social gathering. Karnataka has witnessed many a political summersault in election season.

Because the final Karnataka election, the political complexion of the state meeting has vastly modified after mass resignations that introduced down a coalition authorities and compelled by-elections. The BJP, which could not rack up a majority, finally got here to energy with the assist of rebels from the Congress and Janata Dal Secular (JDS).

The switcheroo is a typical play in Karnataka politics.

Greater than half the ministers within the state cupboard have pulled off a number of switches of their careers. A 3rd of the Karnataka cupboard consists of ministers who had been first elected on a Congress or JDS ticket, who resigned and returned as BJP MLAs.

Apparently, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai and Chief of Opposition Siddaramaiah, a former chief minister, had been each within the Janata Dal earlier than one moved to the BJP and the opposite joined the Congress.

A number of extra information factors assume relevance. One in every of each six MLAs within the Karnataka meeting – 35 of 224 – have been elected on multiple social gathering ticket throughout their electoral profession. Practically a fourth of the present BJP MLAs (28 of 119) have received an election beforehand from a unique social gathering. Ten p.c of Congress MLAs (7 of 75) have equally been MLAs from a unique political social gathering previously. This fluidity is linked to the truth that political events are intensely faction-ridden, and the departure of each chief triggers the migration of their supporters too.

In Karnataka, particularly since 2004, floor-crossing by elected representatives is a direct corollary to the truth that electoral outcomes haven’t given a transparent majority to a single social gathering. This has resulted within the “manufacturing” of a majority by varied means. Probably the most-favoured technique is to get rival social gathering MLAs to resign, cross over and contest by-elections on the ruling social gathering ticket.

Does the victory of MLAs who switched sides point out that the floor-crossing is endorsed by voters? It may be persuasively argued that every one however two of the MLAs who defected from the Congress/JDS to the BJP received by-elections.

There’s a second argument that deserves consideration. Voters within the constituencies the place by-elections passed off had seen the instability of the JDS-Congress coalition authorities and should have nicely needed a transparent majority for the BJP to make sure stability for the remainder of its time period. But political stability isn’t merely in regards to the survival of the ruling social gathering but in addition about how nicely it handles its inner contradictions as soon as it has cobbled collectively a majority by all means doable. A die-hard BJP supporter defined it by a easy conservative analogy. He mentioned in a joint household, when a brand new daughter-in-law enters the home, she turns into the main target of consideration. There may be, he mentioned, an inclination to overlook the contribution of the daughters-in-law already in the home. This appears to be the destiny of many a ruling social gathering that’s determined to realize the magic determine of a easy majority, unmindful of the compromises wanted to be made alongside the best way. Within the present season of floor-crossing in Karnataka, this is a vital lesson to bear in mind.

(Dr. Sandeep Shastri is the Nationwide Coordinator of the Lokniti Community)

Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the writer.