A outstanding Bitcoin (BTC) dealer predicts that the cryptocurrency gained’t expertise a 2019-like fakeout rally within the present market cycle.
Pseudonymous dealer Dave the Wave tells his 140,000 followers on social media platform X that the 2019 fakeout rally was attributable to a sudden Bitcoin breakout after solely spending months within the “purchase zone.”
The “purchase zone” is the dealer’s personal model of logarithmic progress curves (LGC), which purpose to plot the highs and lows of Bitcoin’s long-term market cycles whereas filtering out short-term volatility and noise.
Nonetheless, the dealer says this cycle Bitcoin has already spent greater than a yr within the “purchase zone,” setting the stage for a sustained bull rally.
He additionally bases his thesis on the month-to-month shifting common convergence divergence (MACD), which is a momentum indicator that may sign the reversal of an asset’s development.
“People who have adopted me for a while might bear in mind my calling of the 2019 BTC spike as a ‘mini bubble’. This was based mostly on the LGC mannequin, the place the value moved too rapidly/parabolically out of the purchase zone.
This time, no such factor. Even when costs ought to decline somewhat extra within the brief time period, the weekly MACD [a lagging indicator] suggests a risk-managed purchase for the investor.”
his chart, the dealer thinks BTC stays in bearish territory however because the MACD line is nearing the zero line from above a bullish reversal may very well be coming quickly.
The dealer additionally says that the LGC mannequin is proving to be a dependable indicator of BTC’s worth motion.
“To date, the LGC mannequin, as drawn since 2018, couldn’t have carried out higher in each projecting the vary of worth… and predicting the perfect time to be shopping for. This assertion is indeniable … based mostly as it’s on prediction and efficiency.”
The dealer beforehand predicted Bitcoin will go on a bull rally in 2024.
Bitcoin is buying and selling for $26,413 at time of writing, up 0.8% previously 24 hours.
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