Whereas it’s felt like we’ve been eagerly anticipating the end result of the midterms for weeks, a great factor to remember on election evening is that there’s quite a bit that we might not know instantly due to how a lot time it takes to course of ballots.

That delay gained’t be an indication that something has gone amiss, however the results of needing time to rely votes, together with mail-in ballots, which regularly take longer to tally as a result of many states can’t begin processing them till Election Day. Since every state additionally establishes its personal vote-counting insurance policies, and has totally different polling instances, some states are additionally poised to be quicker than others in terms of reporting their returns.

On account of all this variability — to not point out a variety of various time zones — the outcomes will probably be staggered, and every social gathering’s respective leads may shift considerably within the course of. Right here’s a rundown of some issues to count on as we await election outcomes on Tuesday night, and later this week.

A number of states — together with key swing states — will not be referred to as on election evening

Due to the time it’s going to take states to course of mail-in ballots, it’s doable a number of states gained’t be referred to as on election evening, particularly if the races are shut. Wisconsin, for instance, can solely start counting mail-in ballots on Election Day, so outcomes gained’t grow to be extra clear till that course of is underway.

Whereas it’s not a precise parallel, the 2020 election may provide a preview of after we’ll see returns from totally different locations. Because the New York Occasions defined, the presidential election leads to 16 states nonetheless hadn’t been referred to as as of midnight japanese time on Election Day that 12 months. Notably, key swing states — together with Pennsylvania and Nevada — didn’t have their races referred to as till the next weekend as a result of each locations have been nonetheless counting mail-in ballots, and each presidential outcomes have been inside lower than 5 share factors.

Relying on how tight the contests are this 12 months, we may see comparable timing, or a quicker name if it’s clear that exact elections are a landslide. Moreover, fewer folks might use mail-in ballots this 12 months as a result of there are fewer issues about voting in-person because of the pandemic, one other issue that would contribute to quicker outcomes this cycle than final.

Past counting of mail-in ballots, the timing of ballot closures in several states may additionally have an effect on when outcomes are available. The primary polls to shut will probably be in Indiana and Kentucky, the place some polls will shut down at 6 pm japanese. The newest West Coast polls will keep open till 8 pm native time and 11 pm Japanese, so lots of these states, together with Alaska and Hawaii, gained’t even start reporting returns till later into the night.

Basically, states like Florida and Colorado are usually anticipated to report outcomes quicker as a result of they’re in a position to start counting mail-in ballots earlier than Election Day, whereas states like Washington take longer as a result of they’ll’t start counting mail-in ballots till the polls shut, and since they offer voters extra time to submit them. Under is a preview of when to count on outcomes from a few of the largest swing states:

Pennsylvania: Polls shut in Pennsylvania at 8 pm Japanese and outcomes may take longer as a result of the state doesn’t start counting mail-in ballots till Election Day. In 2020, Pennsylvania’s presidential election outcomes weren’t referred to as till the Saturday after the election, a dynamic that could possibly be the case once more for races which can be significantly shut, because the Senate race is predicted to be.

Arizona: Polls shut in Arizona at 7 pm native time / 9 pm Japanese and outcomes may take longer as a result of a excessive proportion of the state votes early and has till election day to drop off mail-in ballots. The state is ready to start counting mail-in ballots as they’re obtained, however may take extra time to course of last-minute ones. In 2020, Arizona’s presidential election outcomes weren’t referred to as till 9 days after Election Day, and the state may wish extra time once more this 12 months if many citizens submit their ballots on the later aspect.

Georgia: Polls shut in Georgia at 7 pm Japanese, and outcomes may come in additional shortly from the state this 12 months due to guidelines modifications that allow it to start processing absentee ballots sooner than it did earlier than. The closeness of the Georgia Senate election, nonetheless, may imply the end result should take longer to grow to be clear. In 2020, Georgia’s presidential outcomes have been initially referred to as by networks 10 days after the election, and reaffirmed six days later after a recount. It’s additionally doable candidates within the Senate race may go to a different run-off on December 6 if neither wins greater than 50 % of the vote.

Wisconsin: Polls shut in Wisconsin at 8 pm native time / 9 pm Japanese and outcomes may take longer as a result of the state isn’t in a position to rely mail-in ballots till Election Day. In 2020, Wisconsin’s presidential outcomes have been referred to as the following day, which may occur once more this 12 months relying on how tight the Senate election is.

Nevada: Polls shut in Nevada at 7 pm native time / 10 pm Japanese and outcomes may take longer as a result of voters can postmark their ballots as late as Election Day, delaying the rely. In 2020, Nevada’s presidential outcomes have been referred to as the Saturday after the election, which could possibly be the case once more for the state’s closely contested Senate race.

It would initially seem like one social gathering’s candidate is successful a race — however that would change

As outcomes are available over the course of the following few days, the leads that every social gathering’s candidates have may additionally shift: In some states, as an example, Republicans might initially look like successful as a result of in-person voting is counted earlier and skews GOP, however Democrats may overtake them after mail-in ballots, which skew Democratic, are factored in.

That’s a dynamic that consultants have warned about in states together with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, every of which has a decent Senate race. Neither state can rely mail-in ballots till the day of the election, so these outcomes are prone to are available later than the preliminary in-person votes.

That set-up may create what’s often known as a “purple mirage,” suggesting that Republicans are initially successful, an consequence that would doubtlessly change after extra mail-in ballots are factored in. Earlier this 12 months, former Fox Information editor Chris Stirewalt testified in entrance of the January 6 Committee about this phenomenon, and the way it was amplified within the 2020 election as a result of extra folks used mail-in ballots that 12 months. In 2020, Trump sought to use this dynamic by prematurely declaring victory due to early leads he had earlier than the votes had absolutely been counted in battleground states.

As New York Journal’s Ed Kilgore writes, it’s vital to be on guard for candidates attempting to make use of the identical technique to once more falsely declare victory earlier than all of the ballots have been counted, particularly in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

We’d not know remaining Senate and Home breakdowns

Past the particular timing points that would outcome due to every state’s distinctive ballot-counting guidelines, there are different elements that would delay after we know the ultimate breakdowns about Home and Senate management.

If the Georgia Senate race goes to a different run-off this 12 months, it’s doable we gained’t know which social gathering has the Senate majority till after that race takes place on December 6. In Georgia, the Senate race mechanically goes to a run-off between the highest two candidates if no candidate wins a majority of the vote within the basic election.

Moreover, it may take longer to finalize different outcomes if races are significantly shut and a recount is triggered. In over 20 states — together with Florida and Ohio — a recount mechanically takes place if candidates are inside extraordinarily slim margins of each other, normally at the least 0.5 % or much less. Candidates are additionally in a position to individually request recounts if the outcomes are shut sufficient in different states.

Republican Nationwide Committee Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel signaled over the weekend that Republicans meant to make the most of totally different avenues, together with recounts, to confirm and problem election outcomes that aren’t of their favor as effectively.

“Pay attention, it’s best to have a recount. It is best to have a canvas. And it’ll go to the courts, after which everyone ought to settle for the outcomes. That’s what it must be,” McDaniel mentioned in a CNN interview.

Makes an attempt at legally difficult the outcomes, or disputing mail-in ballots — a technique that Republicans have already begun to make use of in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — may result in main delays in formally settling races, which means it could possibly be weeks, or longer, earlier than the ultimate outcomes are set as effectively.