Management of the Home of Representatives stays unclear as of Sunday morning, as Republicans seem to have an edge however a path to a Democratic majority stays.

To win a majority, a celebration wants 218 seats. The totals for a number of shut contests and races with many uncounted mail ballots stay in flux. However at present, Republican candidates lead in 221 districts and Democrats lead in 214.

So to carry their majority, Democrats want to achieve the lead in 4 Home races the place Republicans are at present forward — in addition to holding on to their very own leads, a few of that are fairly slender.

A Democratic takeover might be not the doubtless final result at this level, however it’s potential. One contest the place a Republican beforehand led, in Maryland’s Sixth District, flipped to Democrats Friday, when Rep. David Trone (D) was known as the winner. There are a number of different uncalled contests, significantly in California, the place solely 60 p.c or so of the vote has been counted and tallies of the remaining mail ballots might change the leads.

The catch is that Democrats’ small leads in different shut races are removed from safe. In current days, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), who unexpectedly trailed her Democratic challenger, regained a small lead. And in three different uncalled contests, the Democrat is main by lower than 2 share factors. So so much would nonetheless need to go proper for Democrats for the GOP’s takeover to be thwarted.

The important thing contests Democrats may hope to flip

There are 10 uncalled Home contests the place Republicans at present lead, so for a majority, Democrats would want to win 4 of these. And their hopes overwhelmingly hinge on whether or not sluggish tallies of mail-in ballots might shift outcomes of their favor.

• One risk is Colorado’s Third District, the location of a possible stunning upset towards Boebert. She is main her Democratic challenger Adam Frisch by somewhat over a thousand votes, with potential “cures” for mail ballots that have been initially rejected being the doubtless subsequent step.
• In Oregon’s Fifth District, progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D), who defeated a reasonable incumbent within the Democratic main, is at present trailing Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) by 2.2 share factors, with 7 p.c of the vote nonetheless uncounted.
• In New York’s twenty second District, an open seat contest to exchange the retiring reasonable Rep. John Katko (R), Republican Brandon Williams leads by 1.6 share factors.
• Mail may be a think about Arizona’s Sixth District, the place Republican Juan Ciscomani’s lead over Democrat Kristen Engel shrank to lower than 1 share level Friday.

However their hopes will in all probability hinge on California, one other closely vote-by-mail state, the place there are a number of uncalled races the place Republicans at present lead, and solely about half the vote has been counted.

• The California thirteenth District’s open seat contest appears to be like promising for Democrats to flip since On Sunday morning, Republican John Duarte was main by solely a tiny margin over Democrat Adam Grey (lower than 100 votes), and simply over 60 p.c of the vote is counted.
• Rep. David Valadao (R) represents California’s twenty second District, which Joe Biden gained handily, and he has been via this earlier than. In 2018, he led his Democratic challenger by 8 factors on election night time, however because the mail depend slowly got here in, that lead vanished, and he fell behind on November 26 and wouldn’t regain his lead. (He gained the seat again in 2020.) This time his lead already shrank from 8 factors to five factors. Will historical past repeat itself?
• California’s Third District and California’s forty first District each narrowly went for Trump in 2020, and Republican candidates Kevin Kiley (CA-03) and Rep. Ken Calvert (CA-41) have single-digit leads, with about half of the vote uncounted.
• Lastly, California’s twenty seventh District and forty fifth District function Republican incumbents — Mike Garcia (CA-27) and Michelle Metal (CA-45) — who signify districts Biden gained however who at present lead handily. Their closing margins are anticipated to get nearer, although it’s not clear whether or not the untallied votes will probably be adequate to alter the end result.

So these are Democrats’ hopes — to be saved by mail ballots and California’s sluggish counting course of once more. Nonetheless, it’s value noting that although the standard knowledge is that late-counted mail ballots profit Democrats, that’s not essentially true in each state or district. (Washington and California have nonpartisan primaries, and in a few of these, Republicans gained floor as mail ballots have been counted this yr.)

However Democrats would additionally want to carry on in their very own tight races

Having 5 contests flip the place Republicans at present lead isn’t precisely straightforward, however it’s potential contemplating how shut a few of these races are and what number of mail ballots haven’t been counted.

But the additional problem Democrats face is that they should maintain on to their very own leads, together with in some very tight races. That isn’t a positive lead, and so they already noticed leads in two contests (CO-03 and CA-41) slip away midweek.

The districts the place Democratic leads could also be a bit shaky embrace:

• Arizona’s First District, the place redistricting put Rep. David Schweikert (R) in narrowly Biden-leaning territory. His challenger, Jevin Hodge (D), led by about 0.78 share factors as of Sunday morning, with about 14 p.c of the vote left to be counted.
• Colorado’s Eighth District, which was newly created after redistricting. Yadira Caraveo (D) initially led the depend, however the race since tightened dramatically, and he or she’s now forward by simply 0.73 share factors.
• Oregon’s Sixth District, a brand new Democratic-leaning district that noticed a bitter and costly main combat gained by Andrea Salinas (D). Salinas leads her GOP opponent by about 1.7 share factors, with about 40 p.c of the vote uncounted.

Democrats did get some excellent news Saturday in Washington’s Third District, when Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) was known as the winner over Trump-endorsed Joe Kent (R). It is a main upset in a Republican-leaning district the place the incumbent, Trump-critical Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R), didn’t advance from the top-two main.

As well as, Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) at present leads Alaska’s at-large district and Rep. Jared Golden leads Maine’s Second District, however their fates will probably be determined by ranked-choice voting, after lower-performing candidates in these races are eradicated and their ballots are reallocated to the voters’ second alternative.

If a few of these Democratic leads slip away in favor of Republicans, it’s potential the Home will probably be known as for the GOP comparatively quickly. But when Democrats cling on right here and begin gaining floor in contests the place Republicans are up, Home management might take weeks to find out, as California and different states cope with the sluggish technique of processing and counting many 1000’s of mail ballots. Buckle up.

Replace, November 13, 10:00 am: This story was initially printed on November 10 and has been up to date with election calls and race counts.