Upon profitable independence from its British colonizers in 1960, hundreds of Nigerians watched as their new inexperienced and white flag was raised over the then capital, Lagos, at midnight. As fireworks lit up the streets, hope and promise had been within the air.

Nigerians’ hopes have been dashed many occasions since then. They’ve endured a bitter civil battle, many years of army dictatorship, and prior to now eight years, rising violence and financial failures beneath President Muhammadu Buhari. A file 89 % of Nigerians assume the nation goes within the incorrect path.

However in Saturday’s presidential election — one of the vital consequential within the 23 years because the final dictatorship ended and democracy took maintain — many see an opportunity to alter course.

And as Nigerians make their solution to polling stations throughout their big and various nation on Saturday, the race to steer their younger democracy — and its legions of youthful residents — appears extensive open.

The monopoly on energy that the 2 main events have held for 20 years has been shaken up by a shock third occasion candidate, Peter Obi. A number of polls have proven him within the lead, propelled by enthusiastic younger voters, however whether or not they may prove in giant sufficient numbers to elect him is unsure.

Different polls have proven each the governing occasion’s candidate, Bola Tinubu, and Atiku Abubakar, a businessman and perennial opposition candidate, within the lead.

In a rustic of 220 million, Africa’s most populous, greater than 93 million folks registered for everlasting voting playing cards, the election fee mentioned — essentially the most ever.

On a latest afternoon outdoors an occasion corridor in Lagos, one remorseful former Buhari voter, Joshua Pius, a 34-year-old drummer on a break from performing, mentioned he was now incomes so little, his younger household had been compelled to chop again on meals. His youngsters are 1 and three.

Mr. Pius was decided to make his subsequent vote rely, he mentioned, as bouncy highlife music from a funeral streamed from the corridor — funerals in Nigeria are sometimes celebrations of life somewhat than somber events.

He mentioned, utilizing the shorthand for everlasting voter’s card, “The one hope you may have is your P.V.C.”

Like many Nigerians, Mr. Pius has been blindsided by a sudden, countrywide scarcity of money — a disaster precipitated when the federal government determined to revamp and roll out new foreign money simply earlier than the election. Nigeria’s central financial institution took billions of naira (the native foreign money) out of circulation, whereas placing solely a fraction in new notes again in. Even these with cash within the financial institution can’t discover money to pay for meals, medication and different necessities, inflicting widespread struggling.

Checking out that mess is simply one of many mammoth duties the election winner will face. G.D.P. per capita has plummeted throughout President Buhari’s tenure. Oil manufacturing fell to its lowest level in over three many years final yr. The military is deployed all around the nation, preventing Islamist militants, secessionists, kidnappers and communal clashes.

However the potential of Africa’s greatest democracy is maybe larger than the challenges. Nigerians converse proudly of their nation’s pure riches — in addition to oil, it has profuse provides of gasoline and strong minerals, and larger agricultural potential than nearly every other African nation, due to its huge, fertile lands and considerable water.

And that’s to say nothing of its human capital. The nation’s unofficial motto, “Naija no dey carry final” — pidgin English for “Nigerians by no means come final” — speaks to their drive and creativity, on show within the booming tech sector, the Nollywood movie business and the worldwide musical phenomenon that’s Afrobeats.

Lately, nonetheless, the younger those who drive that innovation have been leaving in droves — or planning to.

A type of, Henry Eze, a 31-year-old music producer, was on the sidelines of a political rally in Lagos this month, natty in a three-piece go well with regardless of the warmth. Mr. Eze mentioned he left Nigeria for Europe in 2017, however ended up as an alternative in a Libyan detention heart, the place he witnessed horrific abuses and needed to bury dozens of his pals, earlier than he was rescued and introduced dwelling.

The rally he was attending was for Mr. Obi, who six months in the past was not seen as a critical contender, however who has run a remarkably profitable marketing campaign, significantly on-line. He’s the surprising challenger in opposition to the governing occasion’s candidate, Mr. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos, and Mr. Abubakar, the perennial opposition candidate. Of the 18 whole candidates, a fourth candidate — Rabiu Kwankwaso — might show a spoiler by splitting the vote in elements of the north.

Mr. Eze mentioned that if Mr. Abubakar or Mr. Tinubu — whom he known as “a vampire” for sucking the nation’s riches — received the election, he wouldn’t hesitate to depart Nigeria once more, despite the fact that he was traumatized by his first try to flee.

“Anyplace is best than Nigeria,” Mr. Eze mentioned.

Many Nigerians assume their leaders, additionally, can’t get a lot worse.

Some, like Mr. Eze, are placing their hopes in Mr. Obi. Others assume Mr. Abubakar’s enterprise acumen will assist put Nigeria again on a affluent path. Many help Mr. Tinubu, who has a repute for recognizing the expertise and expertise many say the nation wants.

On the sidelines of a Tinubu rally this week, Bose Shoyombo, a 32-year-old dressmaker, mentioned: “We would like jobs, and he’s one of the best positioned to assist younger folks.”

All three of the front-runners — who’ve all confronted allegations of corruption or wrongdoing — are promising a number of main departures from the best way issues have been finished prior to now: an finish to the gasoline subsidies which have helped push Nigeria right into a fiscal gap and permitting the alternate price to be set by market forces somewhat than officers.

For the primary time, not one of many high contenders has a army background — a giant deal contemplating former army rulers turned democrats have been at Nigeria’s helm for 16 of the 23 years since democracy was reborn in 1999.

For a rustic so youthful — the median age is simply over 18 — politics is dominated by previous males, in some ways taking part in by the previous guidelines.

A widely known — although murky — phenomenon in Nigerian politics is the function of godfathers, a free time period for the “large males” who play an outsize function in making or breaking politicians’ careers.

Mr. Tinubu is likely one of the nation’s best-known godfathers, boasting that he handpicked his successors because the governor of Lagos state. Mr. Tinubu even claims that with out him, Mr. Buhari would by no means have turn out to be president.

This goes some solution to clarify the slogan coined by Mr. Tinubu and most frequently related along with his personal presidential bid: “It’s my flip.”

Mr. Abubakar, of the principle opposition occasion, has run and misplaced 5 occasions earlier than. He could possibly be forgiven for pondering it’s his flip, too.

And at a latest go to to a Lagos market, Mr. Obi informed the gang: “Whether it is anyone to speak about ‘It’s my flip,’ it must be me” — a reference to the truth that there has by no means been a president from his area, the southeast.

Lately, different West African nations have skilled a wave of coups. Afrobarometer, a survey group, seen that a number of elements got here collectively within the lead-up to these coups: dissatisfaction with the path the nation is headed, an absence of belief within the presidency, approval of the army, and a notion that corruption is growing.

In Nigeria, the symptoms are going that method too, in line with the pinnacle of Afrobarometer.

On that final night time of British rule in 1960, after the flag elevating and the fireworks show ushering of their first day of independence, Nigerians waited for the daybreak.

Typically within the years since, analysts have predicted the disintegration of Nigeria, invoking the phrases of its most beloved author, Chinua Achebe: “Issues collapse. The middle can’t maintain.”

Up to now, it has held.

Elian Peltier and Oladeinde Olawoyin contributed reporting.