For months, Yevgeny Prigozhin has been Russia’s most public and provocative army chief in Ukraine. When he’s not lauding the heroics of his personal preventing power from the entrance traces, he’s castigating the Russian generals for ravenous him of the provides he wants to complete the work they may not.

But now, as his mercenaries battle to finish a takeover of the jap metropolis of Bakhmut, Mr. Prigozhin is more and more turning his consideration to Russia’s dwelling entrance, in what analysts see as makes an attempt to safe a political offramp from the debilitating battle on the battlefield.

He has mentioned his preventing power, Wagner, will recede to the background after the battle for Bakhmut is over “to progressively reload, to shrink.” He additionally added, in a video message printed on March 11, that Wagner would “rework into a military with ideology, and this ideology would be the battle for justice.”

Such statements have coincided with different current bulletins suggesting Mr. Prigozhin desires to maneuver previous his standing as a army chief and play a bigger position in Russian society.

Final week, Wagner, which operated in secrecy as lately as final 12 months, introduced that it might open recruitment facilities in 42 Russian cities, regardless of the shrinking of the pool of veterans who’ve shaped the spine of its forces. Wagner has additionally lately opened a patriotic youth membership, known as Little Wagnerite, and hosted an exhibition of pro-war work.

The shift coincides with a wave of hypothesis about Mr. Prigozhin’s political ambitions, as he mixes aggrandizing statements and criticism of Russia’s army with cautious navigation of the Russian hierarchy — and respect for President Vladimir V. Putin.

“He sees his future in danger, and he’s scrambling to current a spot for himself after Bakhmut inside the bigger struggle,” mentioned Jack Margolin, a Washington-based professional on Russia’s personal army firms.

Mr. Prigozhin has stepped up efforts to exhibit broad assist for Wagner amongst Russian businessmen, politicians and servicemen.

Final week, he publicly thanked Russia’s minister of trade and an govt on the military-industrial conglomerate Rostec for offering ammunition.

Within the final a number of months, he has additionally publicized ties with regional officers and nationalist politicians on the fringes of Mr. Putin’s political system, in addition to different pro-Russian paramilitary leaders. Wagner has been endorsed by the governor of Russia’s Kursk area, Roman Starovoyt, who in January went on a coaching course on the group’s base. His area has been a frequent goal of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes.

Analysts say these sorts of alliances may serve a prelude for Wagner’s transformation right into a political motion that, by way of recruitment and propaganda campaigns, will support Mr. Putin’s purpose of mobilizing Russian society for a protracted struggle. That might permit Mr. Prigozhin to point out continued worth to the Kremlin even when Wagner suffered battlefield defeats, Mr. Margolin mentioned.

On the similar time, Mr. Prigozhin has continued to lambast high army officers for denying his forces crucial provides. On Sunday, he went so far as claiming that abnormal Russian servicemen had been bypassing army forms to donate a few of their scarce ammunition to Wagner.

“Such servicemen are the bulk,” he mentioned in a follow-up assertion on Monday. “It’s simply that we missed the second when unqualified scoundrels and intrigants crushed these humble guys,” he mentioned, utilizing his ordinary insults for the Russian army normal workers.

Russia’s protection and trade ministries and Rostec didn’t reply to requests for remark.

To some analysts, Mr. Prigozhin’s flurry of boasts and grandiose projections betray a shedding battle towards Russia’s high generals.

“I see some desperation right here,” mentioned Kirill Rogov, the founding father of Re: Russia, an analytical group. “Prigozhin’s positions have noticeably weakened, as a result of they haven’t taken Bakhmut, they’re taking massive losses and it’s not clear how they may replenish them.”

The Russian political scientist Dmitri Oreshkin mentioned Mr. Putin had tolerated Mr. Prigozhin’s outspokenness and army autonomy as a result of his grinding advance on Bakhmut had pushed the common Russian army to point out related success elsewhere in Ukraine.

Mr. Prigozhin has himself framed his battlefield position in related phrases. As Wagner advances, “others should to attempt to sustain with us to save lots of their face,” he mentioned in a video printed on March 4.

Mr. Putin made a wager on Mr. Prigozhin final summer time, after Russian forces stumbled from one army catastrophe to a different within the early months of the struggle.

Wagner was allowed to enhance its ranks with tens of 1000’s of males recruited instantly from Russian prisons. Mr. Putin personally issued mass pardons for the enlisted convicts, a departure from authorized precedent that confirmed the dimensions of Kremlin’s involvement in Mr. Prigozhin’s challenge on the time.

Thrown into battle with little coaching, the ex-convicts have progressively exhausted Ukrainian defenses round Bakhmut with waves of expensive assaults, permitting the group to take management of the jap half of town final week. The Russian forces have did not make significant advances elsewhere.

All through the monthslong battle for Bakhmut, Mr. Prigozhin has appeared to relish his position as Russia’s army provocateur, posting profanity-laden accusations of incompetence towards senior commanders and insulting the relations of the protection minister, Sergei Ok. Shoigu.

Mr. Prigozhin has mocked Mr. Shoigu’s son-in-law for vacationing in Dubai and toying with antiwar sentiment, and final week mentioned Wagner had recruited a namesake of the son-in-law. Social media channels affiliated with Wagner then posted a video of the fighter cursing the son-in-law.

However whereas Wagner’s progress in Bakhmut has put Russia on the cusp of its first important victory since final summer time, it has additionally uncovered the bounds of Mr. Prigozhin’s army technique and the price of his assaults on the Russian protection chiefs.

Mr. Prigozhin mentioned final month that Wagner had misplaced entry to Russian jails to recruit fighters; final week he added that he and his representatives had been banned from Russian army services. These developments have reduce Wagner’s entry to recruits and provides, he mentioned. He has frequently complained a few lack of ammunition.

Ukrainian officers mentioned this month that Wagner had begun to expire of ex-convict fighters, forcing it to make use of extra environment friendly however scarce skilled models in assaults. That amplifies the price of casualties.

On Sunday, Mr. Prigozhin acknowledged the sluggish tempo of advance in Bakhmut, calling the preventing “troublesome,” and saying that Ukrainian defenders continued to “claw at each meter.”

Mr. Prigozhin has additionally in current days warned of a looming Ukrainian counteroffensive to liberate the contested metropolis, saying that it may collapse Russia’s complete entrance line if the common military doesn’t come to Wagner’s support.

“He’s turning to public opinion and the media as a result of he’s now not capable of resolve issues behind the scenes,” mentioned Mr. Margolin, the analyst.

In a written response to questions, Mr. Prigozhin mentioned his plans to show Wagner into an ideological military referred to the political coaching of his fighters fairly than a broader political challenge.

“Ideological preparation, in my view, will drastically improve the effectiveness of our models,” he mentioned.

Russian and Western analysts mentioned that the volatility of Russian politics and society in wartime made it troublesome to foretell how profitable Mr. Prigozhin is likely to be in reworking himself from a paramilitary chief right into a nationwide political determine. He has refashioned his public persona earlier than, turning himself from a convicted fraudster to a catering tycoon, who grew to become often known as “Putin’s chef.’’

A nationwide survey by the Moscow-based pollster Russian Discipline in early February discovered that 41 % of respondents accepted of Mr. Prigozhin’s position within the struggle. This makes him one of many nation’s extra fashionable wartime leaders, mentioned Artemiy Vvedenskiy, Russian Discipline’s founder.

However regardless of Mr. Prigozhin hyperactivity on social media, the identical survey discovered that almost a 3rd of Russians didn’t know something about his struggle effort, displaying the bounds of web image-making in a rustic the place most individuals nonetheless get their information from tv.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser and frequent visitor on Russian state tv exhibits, mentioned final month that the Kremlin had directed TV channels to restrict the protection of Mr. Prigozhin to maintain his ambitions in verify.

However amongst youthful, technology-savvy Russian struggle supporters, Mr. Prigozhin has been capable of stoke patriotic sentiment by constructing a strong anti-elite narrative. His messages place the blame for Russia’s army reversals and staggering losses on incompetent and corrupt army commanders, mentioned Mr. Rogov, the political analyst.

To date, this narrative has served Mr. Putin’s objectives of mobilizing struggle supporters and pressuring his generals to carry out. But it surely may backfire ought to Russia’s battlefield fortunes flip catastrophic, Mr. Rogov mentioned, as a result of it was Mr. Putin who appointed the commanders.

In a system that emphasizes public unity, the analyst mentioned, “Prigozhin may grow to be a strong power of destabilization.”

Alina Lobzina contributed analysis and Anton Troianovski contributed reporting.