That is an version of The Atlantic Every day, a e-newsletter that guides you thru the most important tales of the day, helps you uncover new concepts, and recommends the very best in tradition. Join it right here.

If you happen to’re discovering it laborious to maintain monitor of all of former President Donald Trump’s authorized woes, don’t really feel dangerous: He can’t get it straight, both. Final weekend, he introduced that he’d be arrested in Manhattan on Tuesday. It’s now Thursday, and Trump stays a free man, with no indictment from a grand jury but. Public indications nonetheless appear to level towards fees towards Trump in Manhattan, however what and when are nonetheless a thriller. And a number of other extra instances loom past that.

Assuming Trump is finally charged, whether or not in Manhattan or elsewhere, the end result shall be a spectacle nobody alive has seen earlier than: a former U.S. president beneath arrest. We probably received’t see a basic perp stroll, with officers holding him by every arm and escorting him. The method would as an alternative be organized and negotiated beforehand, and he’s reportedly been debating whether or not to smile for the cameras on his approach to being booked. Trump must be fingerprinted like another defendant, after which he’d be launched. However that might be simply the beginning of an extended course of towards a trial or plea, after which a verdict.

With so many investigations and instances floating round, sustaining a way of the problems at stake in every investigation, the timeline for them, and the way severe a risk to the previous president they pose is hard—even while you’ve been following the instances for years now, as I’ve. Right here’s my try and put the entire open felony instances towards Donald Trump in context for straightforward reference. I’ve organized the instances by my evaluation of the seriousness of the allegations to democracy and the rule of regulation, from the least vital to essentially the most.

Manhattan: Hush Cash

As a result of District Legal professional Alvin Bragg has not introduced fees, we have now to invest a bit, however public proof means that Bragg is taking a look at a declare that Trump falsified enterprise information in reimbursing his former fixer Michael Cohen for a hush cost made to Stormy Daniels, an adult-film actor who allegedly had an affair with Trump. Cohen’s payoff and Trump’s reimbursement are usually not in dispute, however Trump denies the affair and any lawbreaking.

When? The timing of any fees is a subject of intense hypothesis, particularly after Trump’s prediction final weekend of a Tuesday arrest. The grand jury unexpectedly didn’t meet yesterday and is reportedly assembly on a unique matter right now. Meaning we’re most likely taking a look at subsequent week on the earliest.

How grave is the allegation? Look, falsifying information is a criminal offense, and crime is dangerous. However many individuals have analogized this case to Al Capone’s conviction on tax evasion: It’s not that he didn’t deserve it, however it wasn’t actually why he was an notorious villain. Except Bragg has a extra elaborate case than he has tipped, this looks like a minor offense in contrast with the others I’ll get to under.

How believable is conviction? The case Bragg is almost definitely to make faces hurdles, together with the statute of limitations, a questionable key witness in Cohen, and a few untested authorized theories. Briefly, based mostly on what we all know, the Manhattan case looks like maybe each the least vital and the legally weakest case. Even some Trump critics are dismayed that Bragg appears to be prone to carry fees earlier than another felony case.

Division of Justice: Mar-a-Lago Paperwork

Particular Counsel Jack Smith is overseeing a Justice Division probe into presidential information, a few of them extremely categorized, discovered at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago dwelling. Trump eliminated many paperwork from the White Home when he left workplace, then refused to return some regardless of repeated requests. His attorneys attested that he’d returned all related paperwork, however an August 2022 search turned up many, together with extraordinarily delicate paperwork allegedly saved haphazardly.

When? Smith faces a de facto deadline of January 20, 2025, at which level Trump or any Republican president would probably shut down a case in the event that they take workplace. Final week a courtroom matter raised eyebrows, as prosecutors persuaded a decide to order Trump’s lawyer handy over paperwork, ruling that attorney-client privilege didn’t apply as a result of proof urged that Trump’s attorneys might have superior a criminal offense. Then this week, Trump appealed, however the D.C. Circuit Court docket rejected the try in a lightning-fast choice.

How grave is the allegation? The alleged dealing with of the paperwork is just not as severe as Trump’s makes an attempt to overturn the election, however it’s most likely a stable bronze medal on this listing. The paperwork are extremely delicate for nationwide safety, and if allegations are true, Trump refused to adjust to a subpoena, tried to cover paperwork, and lied to the federal government via his attorneys.

How believable is conviction? This can be essentially the most open-and-shut case. Not each case involving categorized paperwork will get charged, but when Smith decides to prosecute, the details and authorized concept listed below are extra simple than in nearly another of those issues.

Fulton County: Election Subversion

In Fulton County, Georgia, which incorporates most of Atlanta, District Legal professional Fani Willis has been conducting an investigation into makes an attempt to steal the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, together with Trump’s name to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, by which he pressured Raffensperger to “discover 11,780 votes” to permit him to win.

When? A particular grand jury accomplished its work in January and really helpful that its report be made public. The particular grand jury could make suggestions, however a standard grand jury must situation indictments. Throughout a January listening to over whether or not to launch the complete report, prosecutors advised a decide that choices on fees had been “imminent,” however to date nothing has emerged. (The decide withheld many of the report.)

How grave is the allegation? In need of the federal January 6 case (which I’ll get to subsequent), that is most likely essentially the most egregious. Trump’s strain offensive towards officers on the state degree to attempt to change the outcomes of the election was a grave assault on democracy. However Willis can focus solely on what occurred in Georgia, one piece of the larger entire.

How believable is conviction? Consultants differ. This can be a enormous case for an area prosecutor, even in a county as massive as Fulton, to carry. The grand jury’s foreperson stated in an interview that there shall be no massive surprises in who the jury urged be charged. Willis has the benefit of the recording of the Raffensperger name, which is near a smoking gun.

Division of Justice: January 6

Particular Counsel Smith is overseeing the federal probes associated to Trump’s try and subvert the 2020 election and overturn the outcomes, in addition to the rebellion on January 6, 2021.

When? Nobody is aware of. As with the opposite DOJ case, Smith wants to maneuver rapidly, earlier than Trump or another Republican president might shut down a case upon taking workplace in January 2025.

How grave is the allegation? That is a very powerful Trump case on the market. You’ll be able to’t get a lot graver than making an attempt to subvert the American election system and inciting an assault on Congress, and the Justice Division has the potential to deal with the entire sordid episode.

How believable is conviction? It’s very laborious to say. Everybody noticed the assault, however we don’t know what crimes Smith may cost, or what authorized theories he may use—the Home January 6 committee, for instance, made a nonbinding suggestion to use a seldom-used cost of aiding rebellion—or whether or not he would even cost Trump or as an alternative decide to prosecute lower-level officers.