Regardless of quite a few acquisitions, the cell robotic market is actually not consolidating, and extra firms pop up annually.
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Regardless of quite a few acquisitions, the cell robotic market is actually not consolidating. Extra distributors emerge annually and extra industrial firms are launching AMRs. The mixed market share of the highest 10 and prime 20 main distributors barely modified between 2018 and 2020 and certainly dropped in 2021. Over the previous six years of researching this business, we constantly determine new gamers (each start-ups and current firms from adjoining markets that now provide AMRs).
Fragmentation
Given the dramatic development charges and big variance in regional and vertical business efficiency, additional fragmentation of the provider base seems to be doubtless – particularly when contemplating the big variety of present distributors and the continuous emergence of latest ones. As proven within the determine under, the highest 10 distributors of cell robots, captured simply 36% of complete business revenues in 2021. Examine this to the extra mature industrial robotic market and there the highest 10 distributors take pleasure in a 73% mixed market share. The identical determine for collaborative robotic arms is even greater, at almost 85%.
Begin-Ups Develop Up
Lots of the AMR start-ups from yester-year at the moment are producing important revenues (>$20m) having efficiently expanded on pilots performed in earlier years. US-based Locus Robotics grew to become the business’s first “unicorn” being valued at over $1bn following its $150m fund-raising spherical shut to 2 years in the past. Chinese language rival, Geek+ has lengthy been rumored to be planning its IPO (maybe when business and macro situations enhance), additional highlighting how far these once-start-ups have come.
The marginally extra established gamers have additionally seen their companies develop to the subsequent stage. Having significantly expanded their buyer and distribution bases, they’re benefiting from prospects putting in bigger numbers of AMRs because the know-how turns into extra confirmed.
Vendor Efficiency Varies Massively
A part of the rationale that the business shouldn’t be but consolidating is the truth that “cell automation” captures a large number of robotic sorts, industries and purposes. From automated tugger trains on automotive manufacturing traces, by way of to cell manipulators choosing particular person objects in a achievement middle. As such, vendor efficiency varies massively, and sometimes has little to do with their technique, product or efficiency however extra to do with driving the waves of their business sector.
Total income development charges for distributors ranged from ~150% to unfavorable 50% in 2021. How a vendor carried out was largely linked to the principle finish industries and areas they had been uncovered to in addition to the kind(s) of cell robotic they provide.
What does the Future Maintain?
Main business consolidation seems unlikely within the subsequent 2-3 years. Nevertheless, given the present financial surroundings and curiosity in cell automation, it’s doubtless among the smaller gamers will attempt to ‘money of their chips’. On the similar time, we’re additionally more likely to see much more distributors emerge over the approaching years. The web consequence will doubtless be neither consolidation nor additional fragmentation.
Some excessive profile and main AMR distributors have been acquired up to now two years (notably Fetch Robotics and ASTI Cell Robotics). Nevertheless, each had been acquired by firms with out an current cell robotic portfolio, so this didn’t assist consolidate or focus market revenues. There have been examples of cell robotic firms buying each other. In September 2021, Locus Robotics acquired Waypoint Robotics. And late final yr Teradyne introduced the merger of its two cell robotic acquisitions (MiR and AutoGuide). At first look, this will likely point out market consolidation, however on nearer inspection, it reveals this M&A exercise was considerably insignificant as AutoGuide and Waypoint mixed accounted for lower than 1% of complete business revenues on the level of acquisition.
Future acquisitions look doubtless, significantly from industrial firms wishing to capitalize on the excessive development and margins seen within the cell automation sector. Nevertheless, our expectation is that this could come from firms not already energetic inside the sector.
Different potential consumers may very well be retailers or logistics firms (a lá Amazon/Kiva) or bigger warehouse automation system integrators (the likes of Dematic or Honeywell Intelligrated). However in our opinion that appears unlikely and unwise at the moment. With so many various cell robotic distributors and applied sciences on the market, buying a single AMR firm at this time brings little worth and places all their eggs in a single basket. As an alternative, it will be much better for a retailer or logistics firm to have the ability to purchase from a number of robotic firms, selecting the best-in-breed for the duty at hand. Related for a system integrator, it will be way more compelling to have the ability to provide its prospects the know-how from a number of robotic distributors (assuming they will get distribution agreements) quite than from a single one it had acquired.
After all, with the ability to make the most of utilizing AMR applied sciences from a number of distributors does include its personal challenges – most notably combined fleet orchestration. However that’s one other subject fully!
Editor’s Word: This story was initially printed by Work together Evaluation and was reprinted with permission.
